Power system remains stable with a sustained reduction in unplanned outages

Friday, 09 May 2025: The power system remains stable, supported by adequate emergency reserves that are strategically deployed when necessary to manage periods of high winter peak demand.

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures unplanned outages, stands at 27.99% for the financial year-to-date (1 April to 8 May 2025). This reflects an improvement of ~1.2% compared to 29.15% recorded during the same period last year.

Year-to-date (1 April to 8 May 2025), an average of 6 904MW—equivalent to 14.76% of total generation capacity—has been under planned maintenance. This reflects a 3.32% increase compared to the same period last year.

The Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) load factor stands at 3.87% during the past week (2 to 8 May 2025), marginally up from the 3.78% recorded in the week of 25 April to 1 May 2025. Reliance on diesel usage is decreasing and expected to decline further as maintenance activities wind down and additional units return from long-term repairs during the winter months, increasing available generation capacity.

Eskom presented its Winter Outlook on 5 May 2025 for the period ending 31 August 2025 and it remains in effect. We do not anticipate the implementation of loadshedding if unplanned outages remain below 13 000MW. If outages increase to 15 000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at Stage 2 – an improvement over the prior winter’s worst-case scenario prediction of Stage 5 loadshedding.

A total of 2 970MW will be returned to service before the evening peak on Monday, 12 May 2025, to further stabilise the grid.

Key Performance Highlights:

• From 2 to 8 May 2025, unplanned outages averaged 12 273MW, showing an increase of 112MW compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date (1 April to 8 May 2025) average unplanned outages stand at 13 089MW. Fluctuations in unplanned outages are partly driven by outage slips, which occur when a unit initially scheduled for planned maintenance is reclassified as unplanned due to exceeding the scheduled maintenance timeframe.

• As of today, unplanned outages have declined to 11 670MW, down from 12 644MW recorded last week. The available generation capacity is currently 29 167MW (excluding 720MW from Kusile Unit 6), while tonight’s peak demand is projected at 27 428MW.

• From 1 April to 8 May 2025, the year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is 56.77%, down slightly from 58.97% during the same period last year. The decline is mainly attributed to higher levels of planned maintenance (averaging at 14.76%) and does not include the 720MW from Kusile Unit 6, which is not yet in commercial operation.

• Year-to-date (1 April to 8 May 2025), Eskom spent approximately R2.43 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet, generating 415.91GWh. This is higher than the 175.20GWh generated during the same period last year. This is expected to decline as maintenance activities wind down and additional units return from long-term repairs during the winter months, increasing available generation capacity.

• From 1 April to 8 May 2025, the OCGT load factor stands at 13.36%, representing a 13.8% decrease from the previous week. However, higher than the 5.63% recorded during the same period last year.

Protect transformers this winter – avoid illegal connections and prevent power failures

While loadshedding remains suspended and electricity demand continues to rise, Eskom urges the public to help prevent transformer overloads and related equipment failures, which can result in explosions and prolonged outages. This can be achieved by avoiding illegal connections, purchasing electricity only from Eskom-accredited vendors and ensuring that customers take responsibility for regularising their electricity usage.

Eligible households are encouraged to register for free basic electricity with their local municipalities.

Any illegal activity impacting Eskom’s infrastructure should be reported to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp on 081 333 3323.

With the Winter period setting in, Eskom requests the public to continue to use electricity efficiently.

We will provide an update on Friday, 16 May 2025, or promptly communicate any significant changes as soon as they occur.

ENDS