South African Grid Code (SAGC, Version 9 July 2014) requires the System
Operator on or before 30 October of each year, to publish a review (called the
“Medium Term System Adequacy Outlook” (MTSAO) of the adequacy of the IPS to
meet the long-term (five years) future requirements of electricity consumers.
The first MTSAO published in April 2016, modelled the South African electricity
supply system for the period 2016 to 2021.
the April 2016 publication of the MTSAO to date, the critical planning
assumptions have not changed in a manner that will impact the adequacy
negatively, hence Eskom has taken a position to republish the April 2016
publication of the MTSAO for the October 2016 publication requirement.
primary MTSAO input assumptions impacting system adequacy are the demand
forecast, performance of the existing generation fleet and the commercial
operation dates of the committed plant.
base case of the April 2016 MTSAO, based on the Corporate Plan, indicated that
the system required additional capacity in 2016 and 2017 for an adequate
system, and that the system is adequate from 2018 and can then accommodate
medium to high growth in demand. The study indicated the requirement for an
adequate system in 2016 of 1000MW (peaking and mid merit) and 200MW mid merit
April 2016 study was based on the Ingula commercial operation dates from
January 2017 to July 2017 and EAF of 72%. However, the early commercial
operation of three Ingula units and improving plant performance (about 79% in
September 2016 year to date), means that there is no inadequacy in the system
for the entire study period given the low demand currently being experienced.
The improving EAF will also lessen the capacity required to restore the system
to adequacy should a high demand forecast materialise.