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Eskom generates approximately 95% of the electricity used in South Africa and approximately 45% of the electricity used in Africa. Eskom generates, transmits and distributes electricity to industrial, mining, commercial, agricultural and residential customers and redistributors. Additional power stations and major power lines are being built to meet rising electricity demand in South Africa. Eskom will continue to focus on improving and strengthening its core business of electricity generation, transmission, trading and distribution.

Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook - 2016 to 2021

The South African Grid Code (SAGC, Version 9 July 2014) requires the System Operator on or before 30 October of each year, to publish a review (called the “Medium Term System Adequacy Outlook” (MTSAO) of the adequacy of the IPS to meet the long-term (five years) future requirements of electricity consumers. The first MTSAO published in April 2016, modelled the South African electricity supply system for the period 2016 to 2021.
 
Since the April 2016 publication of the MTSAO to date, the critical planning assumptions have not changed in a manner that will impact the adequacy negatively, hence Eskom has taken a position to republish the April 2016 publication of the MTSAO for the October 2016 publication requirement.
 
The primary MTSAO input assumptions impacting system adequacy are the demand forecast, performance of the existing generation fleet and the commercial operation dates of the committed plant.
 
The base case of the April 2016 MTSAO, based on the Corporate Plan, indicated that the system required additional capacity in 2016 and 2017 for an adequate system, and that the system is adequate from 2018 and can then accommodate medium to high growth in demand. The study indicated the requirement for an adequate system in 2016 of 1000MW (peaking and mid merit) and 200MW mid merit in 2017.
 
The April 2016 study was based on the Ingula commercial operation dates from January 2017 to July 2017 and EAF of 72%. However, the early commercial operation of three Ingula units and improving plant performance (about 79% in September 2016 year to date), means that there is no inadequacy in the system for the entire study period given the low demand currently being experienced. The improving EAF will also lessen the capacity required to restore the system to adequacy should a high demand forecast materialise.

Download the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (.pdf)